Modeling the Certainty Effect: How Perceived Risk Shapes Decision Behavior

 This post introduces a behavioral decision model based on the Certainty Effect—a cognitive bias where individuals disproportionately favor options with perceived certainty over those with higher potential but greater uncertainty. The framework maps how different types of options (high success probability vs. high growth potential) interact with the decision-maker’s sensitivity to certainty, resulting in distinct selection patterns. It offers a structural lens for analyzing risk aversion and opportunity evaluation.

Modeling Based on 西剛志『結局、​どう​したら​伝わるのか？』

Entity Name	Description
Option	A choice presented to the decision-maker, characterized by its probability and potential.
High Probability of Success	An option with a strong likelihood of achieving a predictable outcome.
High Potential for Growth	An option with uncertain outcomes but greater upside if successful.
Selection	The actual choice made by the individual, influenced by their certainty bias.
High Certainty Effect	A tendency to prefer options with guaranteed outcomes, even if suboptimal in the long term.
Low Certainty Effect	A willingness to embrace uncertainty in pursuit of higher potential gains.

By modeling the certainty effect as a structural bias in option evaluation, this framework clarifies why individuals often choose predictability over potential. It invites reflection on how risk perception shapes innovation, leadership, and strategic planning.